• Projections of short-term growth of oil demand vary widely as industry continues dynamic movements

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      Patrick Lavery

      Combustion Industry News Editor

A range of news stories relating to the oil industry have emerged in the past fortnight demonstrating the array of forces acting on, and opinions about, one of the longest-standing sources in the energy world.

  • The International Energy Agency revised down its forecast for the growth in oil consumption for this year to an increase of 1.2 million barrels per day (rather than 1.33 million b/d), and also cut its forecast for next year to 1.1 million b/d, citing expected improved fuel efficiency and more use of electric vehicles. The projections of the IEA have been diverging for some time from those of OPEC, and are now starkly different, with OPEC projecting growth to be 2.2 million b/d this year and 1.5 million b/d in 2025, showing just how much views of the world can differ amongst experts.
  • The Biden administration finalised a rule to increase royalties for oil and gas drilling on federal lands for the first time since 1920, with the rate increasing from 12.5% to 16.67%. The change in the rule, applied by the Bureau of Land Management, was part of the Inflation Reduction Act, and the Biden administration states that the purpose is to raise revenue to cover the cost of the clean-up of oil and gas sites.
  • A possible bid for BP from ADNOC, the state-owned oil company of the United Arab Emirates, was reported. Part of the reason is surely strategic, as it would expand the geographical and services reach of ADNOC, though opportunism is also a factor, as it is widely believed UK-listed companies are undervalued. Shell’s CEO Wael Sawan said in the last fortnight that the company is looking at “all options”, including moving its listing to New York.
  • China reportedly opened a new storage facility for oil and has been filling it with crude from Russia, as the Asian giant is said to be seeking to “hold the bowl of energy security firmly in [its] hands”.
  • OPEC was reported to be looking to woo Namibia to join its cartel, having lost other members in recent years. Around 2.6 billion barrels of oil have been discovered in Namibia so far this decade, according to Rystad Energy, and companies including TotalEnergies, Shell, Chevron, Rhino Resources, Eco Atlantic Oil and Gas, and Galp Energia have been exploring within the country in recent times.