As part of its annual review of Germany’s energy year 2025, German think tank Agora Energiewende reports only a modest 1,5% decrease in the country’s greenhouse gas emissions as compared with the previous year. According to a press release published by the organisation on 7 January, Germany emitted 640 million tonnes of carbon dioxide last year. While this figure brings total emissions to 49 percent below the reference year 1990, the overall year-on-year reduction (9 million tonnes) was less than half the reduction achieved in 2024.

The review shows that the past year’s emission reductions were driven on the one hand by a fall in production in energy-intensive industries caused by persistent weak demand and strained global market conditions, and on the other hand by record levels of solar power generation. However, emission reductions in the energy sector were smaller than in previous years, largely due to weather-related factors.

Agora’s estimates reveal that emissions from transport and buildings rose in 2025, following years of insufficient progress, particularly in the transition to electric vehicles and heat pumps. In the buildings sector, increased use of oil and natural gas for heating resulting from a cold start to the year led to a rise in emissions of 3 million tonnes of CO₂, or 3.2 percent, compared with 2024. Slightly higher fuel consumption increased transport emissions by 2 million tonnes of CO₂, or 1.4 percent year-on-year.

As a result, based on currently available data, Germany once again missed the European climate targets set under the Effort Sharing Regulation by around 30 million tonnes of CO₂. This means that Germany is using up its European Union emission budget for buildings and transport too quickly. If current trends continue, the country will need to purchase additional allowances from other EU Member States worth up to 34 billion euros by 2030.

Julia Bläsius, Director of Agora Energiewende Germany, said: “Wind and solar energy remained the backbone of the energy transition in Germany in 2025. However, the power sector – until now the main driver of emission reductions – cannot permanently compensate for the shortcomings in rolling out climate technologies in transport and buildings. At the same time, sales trends for electricity-based technologies such as electric cars and heat pumps are rising internationally, and Germany also saw a slight uptick in 2025. The federal government should leverage this tailwind: by strengthening domestic demand – and with it also industry – Germany can catch up in climate-neutral technologies.”

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