The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has estimated that the world is on course to increase global greenhouse gas emissions by 9% by 2030 from 2010 levels.

The estimate, in stark contrast to the projected need to reduce emissions by around 45% by the same time (from the same base) in order to avert the worst adverse affects of climate change (i.e. to meet the 1.5^oC average surface temperature rise target), is nonetheless an improvement on last year’s estimate, of an 11% rise (also by 2030, from the 2010 basis).

United Nations secretary-general António Guterres said of the finding that current national emissions reductions pledges are “strikingly misaligned with science”, and that a “climate ambition supernova” should occur in every sector, city and country. Niklas Höhne of the NewClimate Institute compared the lack of strong 2030 emissions reductions targets across much of the world to a family that spends its monthly budget in the first five days of the month.

If focused only on emissions from the use of fossil fuels and industry, the 9% rise from 2010 levels would be a fall of around 2% from 2019 levels, but from whatever aspect it is looked at, the absolute emissions by 2030 will be too high for ambitious progress.