Despite a drop in announced clean hydrogen projects, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects hydrogen production to increase fivefold by 2030 compared with 2024 levels. Their recently published  Global Hydrogen Review 2025 reports that announced clean hydrogen production projects have shrunk from 49 MtH2/y to 37 MtH2/y, due to cancellations and delays. The IEA reiterated that FIDs ‘continue to trail well behind announcements’.

However, projects that are already operational or at final investment decision (FID) are on track to deliver 4.2 MtH2/y by 2030, increasing clean hydrogen from about 1% of global production today to around 4% by the end of the decade, with more than 200 hydrogen projects reaching FID since 2020.  Global hydrogen demand is reported to have reached nearly 100 MtH2/y in 2024, up 2% from 2023 and broadly in line with overall energy demand growth.

The report highlights that globally, it remains much cheaper to produce hydrogen from fossil fuels and that the cost gap with low-emissions hydrogen production remains a key barrier for project development. However, it is expected to narrow. In China for example, renewable hydrogen could become cost-competitive by 2030 due to low technology costs and the cost of capital. In Europe, the gap is also set to reduce in areas with high renewable potential, and because natural gas prices for industrial users in the region are set to be more elevated than elsewhere. In regions where natural gas is cheaper, such as the USA and the Middle East, the cost gap is set to remain relatively high, so that CCUS is likely to be more competitive for producing low-emissions hydrogen in the near term.

IEA Executive Director, Fatih Birol explained that, “the latest data indicates that the growth of new hydrogen technologies is under pressure due to economic headwinds and policy uncertainty. But we still see strong signs that their development is moving ahead globally. To help growth continue, policy makers should maintain support schemes, use the tools they have to foster demand, and expedite the development of necessary infrastructure.”

The IEA report signalled a shift toward pragmatism, urging support for shovel-ready projects in established hydrogen uses such as refining, rather than relying on mega-projects which are increasingly being shelved, or unproven new markets for hydrogen.