International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol has published an opinion piece in the Financial Times in which he has said that the world is at “the beginning of the end” of the use of fossil fuels.

Writing in advance of the release of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook next month, Dr Birol stated that the agency forecasts that the peaks of the use of oil, natural gas, and coal will all come before 2030, based “only on today’s policy settings by governments worldwide — even without any new climate policies”. Interestingly, Dr Birol identifies the “ramifications of the energy crisis” as one of the reasons for the sooner-than-expected peaks, presumably because high fossil fuel prices make other forms of power generation more attractive.

The “spectacular” growth of clean energy technologies, such as solar panels and electric vehicles, is another factor entwined with the energy crisis (and more so with the climate crisis), while structural shifts in the Chinese economy – another factor in the expected peak – are less directly tied to the energy crisis. Regional trends in the use of the three main fossil fuels will vary – more developed countries reducing consumption faster than less developed countries – and circumstances such as heatwaves may produce spikes in consumption, but the overall trend will be one of decline. The peaks would be a significant milestone – in Dr Birol’s words, a “historic turning point” – although the declines from the peaks are currently projected to be less steep than necessary to achieve a goal of limiting global average surface temperature warming to no more than 1.5^oC above pre-industrial levels.

For this reason, Dr Birol identifies the need for “significantly stronger and faster policy action by governments”.