The 28^th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has finished, after almost 70,000 delegates attended the event in Dubai. Following a great deal of pre-conference debate about the choice of host and fears during the event that the outcomes of it would be weak, there was optimism tempered with scepticism at its close. As so much of COPs relate to the use of energy, COP28 and the ‘sideline’ events around it have once again yielded a range of outcomes that will influence industrial combustion for years to come. The main ones were:

• The launch of the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge, in which 130 countries promised to triple the amount of installed renewable power generation capacity (presumably from the 2022 base of around 3,600 GW) “to at least 11,000 GW by 2030 and to collectively double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements from around two per cent to over four per cent every year until 2030.” With annual additional capacity additions currently in the region of 500 GW per year, this would require a rate of increase in added capacity of about 17% each year to 2030, something that appears ambitious but achievable. Neither China nor India were signatories to the pledge.
• An agreement to work towards mutual recognition of low-carbon hydrogen certification schemes between 37 countries, including several European countries, the USA, UK, Australia, Japan, Canada, India, Namibia, and Morocco, which would make a transition to a global hydrogen economy smoother.
• The Oil & Gas Decarbonisation Charter, signed by 52 mostly corporate entities, which aims “to align around net zero by or before 2050, zero-out methane emissions, eliminate routine flaring by 2030 and to continue working towards industry best practices in emission reduction.” This is in relation only to the operations of oil and gas companies, rather than the use of their products. Perhaps most notably, it includes commitments to achieve near-zero methane emissions by 2030, and an end to routine flaring.
• Text in the final declaration of the summit included the aim of “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner … so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.” This was the first time that language explicitly mentioning the use of fossil fuels has been used in a COP agreement, marking something of a milestone, though does not call for the phase out of fossil fuels, as some had hoped. While countries such as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members were reportedly against strong language ‘against’ fossil fuels (as were some middle-income countries such as Colombia), the USA and China reportedly pushed the parties to adopt stronger wording, after an earlier draft text had not mentioned fossil fuels.
• The launch of an Industrial Transition Accelerator for Heavy-Emitting Industries, funded with US$30 million from Bloomberg Philanthropies and the COP28 Presidency, that will focus on the decarbonisation of “steel, aluminium, cement, chemicals, shipping, aviation and parts of the energy supply chain”. It “brings global industry leaders together with policymakers, finance, and technical experts to unlock investment and rapidly scale implementation and delivery of projects needed to cut emissions” and is part of the Global Decarbonisation Accelerator. It is unclear exactly what the ITA will do, but it appears that the funding will be used in reaching “economies of scale in energy technologies – such as green hydrogen, CCUS, sustainable fuels, and long-duration energy storage”, as well as boosting demand for green products, improving policy environments and the availability of concessional finance. The aim is to bring about sectorial “tipping points” in which technology is advanced sufficiently for others to adopt it. One gets the sense that without clearer targets, the ITA may struggle to yield results.
• A launch of the related Cement and Concrete Breakthrough Initiative, championed by the governments of Canada and the UAE, which will “enable countries to share best practices on a range of policies and other measures to decarbonise the cement and concrete sector”
• A declaration by 22 governments to triple nuclear power capacity by 2050.
• Ten new members joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance, including the United States, Czech Republic, UAE, Cyprus, Dominican Republic, Iceland, Kosovo and Norway, bringing the membership to 58 countries as well as many subnational governments and organisations. The PPCA is championed by France.
• Members of the Global Methane Pledge announced over US$1 billion in grant funding for eradicating methane emissions. This is aimed at unlocking further financing for such action, and triples the pre-existing funding to significant levels.
• On climate finance, a total of US$85 billion was committed (at the time of writing), US$61.8 billion of it being in finance, the next largest pot (US$8. 7 billion) being for “lives and livelihoods”, the third being US$6.8 billion for “energy”. With finance being a major focus of COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber, this may have been somewhat of a disappointment, though the financing could grow. Rachel Cleetus, policy director at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said the “finance and equity provisions… are seriously insufficient and must be improved in the time ahead in order to ensure low- and middle-income countries can transition to clean energy and close the energy poverty gap.”

Reaction to COP28, as with all COPs, is mixed. U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said “multilateralism has actually come together and people have taken individual interests and attempted to define the common good”, while the lead negotiator of the Alliance of Small Island States, Anne Rasmussen, said that “We have made an incremental advancement over business as usual, when what we really need is an exponential step change in our actions.”

Danish Minister for Climate and Energy Dan Jorgensen saw the positive, saying “We’re standing here in an oil country, surrounded by oil countries, and we made the decision saying let’s move away from oil and gas.” Noted climate campaigner Al Gore welcomed the deal but noted that the “influence of petrostates is still evident in the half measures and loopholes included in the final agreement.” Ani Dasgupta, President and CEO of the World Resources Institute said that this “Fossil fuels finally faced a reckoning at the UN climate negotiations after three decades of dodging the spotlight. This historic outcome marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era. Despite immense pressure from oil and gas interests, high ambition countries courageously stood their ground and sealed the fate of fossil fuels. Now a critical test is whether far more finance is mobilised for developing countries to help make the energy transition possible.”

In practical terms, increased funding for the Global Methane Pledge, the methane parts of the Oil & Gas Decarbonisation Charter, and the commitment to tripling renewables are probably the most impactful initiatives coming out of COP28. The agreement on recognising low-carbon hydrogen certification is a practical step which could also do quite a lot of good.

While the Oil & Gas Decarbonisation Charter talks about the industry reaching net zero, it applies to production of fossil fuels only, not the major part of the emissions which comes through their use, limiting the strength of the initiative (though it is welcome). The language around fossil fuels in the final declaration is historic, but largely symbolic, though may with future COPs flower into something more concrete.

Rather than trying to force a declaration about the complete phase out of fossil fuels, what might be best in coming COPs is a commitment to ending greenhouse gas emissions from their production and use by 2050, with strong intermediate targets. This would focus on the core problem and give some room for nations economically reliant on fossil fuels to fit into a net-zero future, while allowing the global economy to transition perhaps more smoothly.

Lacking at the conference were any significant improved national emissions reductions pledges, particularly intermediate ones. Some of these were promised at COP26 in Glasgow, put off to COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh, and delayed again to COP28; it seems that that particular can has been kicked down the road again, to 2025, with COP30 in Brazil. Carbon pricing progress has also been delayed.