China’s efforts to reduce the energy intensity of its economy are faltering, according to information in a report released by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) at the opening of the annual National People’s Congress, and according to analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and Global Energy Monitor think tanks.

The NDRC report stated that energy intensity declined by 0.5% in 2023, well below the target of 2%, with the target related to reducing the carbon intensity of economic output also being missed, the reason being the “rapid growth of industrial and civilian energy consumption”. Since 2020, energy use per unit of economic activity fell 2%, the target being a 13.5% fall by 2025, meaning that progress is far off track, according to the two think tanks. This year’s target for reducing energy intensity is 2.5%, suggesting the 2025 target has little chance of being met.

The Commission’s report contained more information outlining the future of energy in China. It promised to “redouble efforts” to cut greenhouse gas emissions, including by refining its carbon pricing mechanisms and expanding their sectoral reach, establishing a national research platform on clean energy and storage, nuclear power, and developing hydrogen power. At the same time, however, it would further develop its “advanced” coal reserves, build further coal-to-liquids and coal-to-gas facilities, and step up exploration for oil and natural gas, as well as for strategic minerals.

The resulting sense of an unhurried energy transition is somewhat at odds with the rapid expansion of renewable energies in the country.