• University of Illinois researchers estimate a 35% chance of world exceeding worst case IPCC scenario

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      Patrick Lavery

      Combustion Industry News Editor

Researchers at the University of Illinois have estimated that there is a 35% chance that the world will exceed the current worst case scenario modelled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The current worst case model, representative concentration pathway 8.5, assumes unmitigated use of fossil fuels and no further policy development on climate change, but according to the researchers the economic growth assumed under this scenario may be exceeded, meaning higher emissions. The study examined uncertainties in economic modelling and found that the current IPCC models factor in less uncertainty than may be prudent. Presumably, the next iteration of IPCC models will review the new work and incorporate the findings if they are found to be valid.