Global hydroelectric generation is poised for a rebound after a three-year slump. This is the opinion of Reuters reporter John Kemp who notes that global hydro generation amounted to 4,240 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2023 compared with a record 4,359 billion kWh in 2020 (Figures provided by the UK Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2024.)

The slump over the last three years has been the largest on record. This is the result of lower-than-average rainfall across China, North America and India and has forced producers to revert to coal and gas-fired power plants to replace lost generation, amplifying the upward trend in fossil fuel burning.

However, thanks to higher rainfall and snow melt in key areas, hydroelectric generation, combined with the rapid deployment of wind and solar power, is expected to contribute to curbing fossil fuel use in 2024.

China, for example, has experienced heavier than normal monsoon rains and most of the main flood season is still ahead in July and August. These heavy river flows will enable the country to make full use of newly installed turbines. By May 2024, China had installed 423 million kilowatts (kW) of generating capacity. This is a significant increase from 370 million kW when generation last peaked in 2020.

In Brazil, hydro has already set a new record of 206 billion kWh in the first five months of the year, surpassing the previous high of 199 billion kWh. U.S. hydro generation has also started to recover from last year’s low and will be 6% higher in 2024 according to government forecasts.

Two-thirds of global hydro generation occurs in just seven countries – China (30%), Brazil (9%), Canada (9%), the United States (6%), Russia (5%), India (4%) and Norway (3%).