The predicted flight to coal as a result of the Iran war energy crisis has not materialised. This is according to a report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) based on an analysis of countries that disclose near-real-time data.

The dataset covers 87% of global coal power generation and over 60% of gas-fired power generation across the world’s largest power markets including China, the U.S., the EU, and India.

The data contradicts widespread expectations that coal power generation would rise in response to the crisis, revealing instead that total power generation from fossil fuels in countries with near-real-time data fell 1% year-on-year, with coal-fired generation flat and gas-fired generation falling 4%. Seaborne coal transport volumes fell 3%, to the lowest levels since 2021.

Specifically, outside China, in countries with real-time electricity data, coal-fired power generation fell 3.5% and gas-fired power generation fell 4.0% in March. This was due to increases in solar power (14%) and wind (8%) generation. Hydropower generation also saw a small increase (2%), but this was more than offset by a drop in nuclear power generation.

In China, power generation from coal increased 2% in March, according to weekly surveys by China Electricity Council, with generators on the coast shifting from gas to coal in response to the high prices. Coal-fired generation was still significantly below 2024 levels, however, as March 2025 recorded a steep 6% drop.

Total electricity generation growth in the countries with data turned from negative in January-February to positive in March, giving no indication that the Hormuz crisis affected power demand.

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