• EU carbon permit price forecasts rising as market stability reserve mechanism looms

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      Patrick Lavery

      Combustion Industry News Editor

Forecasted carbon pollution allowance prices for the EU Emissions Trading System are rising, with stronger demand expected when changes to the system reduce the number of available permits beginning in 2019. Current expectations are that prices will be €18.59/tonne (US$21.53/tonne) in 2019 and €20.76/tonne (US$24.05/tonne) in 2020. These expected prices have risen significantly since April of this year, which indicates that as the changes approach, there is a greater realisation of the impact they might have. The European Commission will be hoping that the changes, which include a ‘market stability reserve’ to transfer unallocated permits out of circulation, tightening demand, raises prices enough to incentivise low-carbon investment choices amongst industry across Europe.