China will remain off track to meet its 2025 carbon intensity target after 2024.

This is according to researchers at the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) who have just released China’s Climate Transition: Outlook 2024.

To measure China’s progress, the researchers benchmarked the country’s emissions and energy trends in key emitting sectors against transition pathways aligned with Paris Agreement goals.

Indicators found to be on track included clean energy investments, electrification, building sector coal use, transport energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, steel and cement output, construction materials sector emissions, and EV sales.

Indicators highlighted as off track included the following:

• Total CO₂ emissions, excluding the effect of weather variations
• Total energy consumption
• Industrial energy consumption
• Buildings energy consumption
• Coal consumption growth in the coal to chemicals sector combined with policy backing for further growth

The study also found that emissions of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases still lack annual reporting and targets that would enable systematic emission reductions and monitoring of progress.

The report concludes that to align with the Paris Agreement and the associated transition pathways, China will need to either speed up the deployment of clean energy or guide economic development in a less energy-intensive direction and increase investment in energy efficiency in various industries, particularly in buildings.

China is currently working on a new set of climate targets known as “nationally determined contributions“, which must be submitted to the United Nations by February.  This information is expected to provide clarity on which emissions pathway Chinese policymakers intend to pursue.

Download the full report here.